On April 8th of 1992 a full two months before he would secure enough delegates to claim the nomination Bill's staff was calling him the presumptive nominee:
[Apr 8, 1992] Clinton's showing yesterday convinced many Democrats that, even with the depth of concern about his character and his ability to win in November within his own party, his nomination is now all but assured. "Bill Clinton is the presumptive nominee," declared Mark Mellman
the same way he declared victory in the 1992 NH primary, even though he came in 2nd by 8 points.
Its mathematically impossible for |Obama to reach the required delegate count, however.
With Bill, he had sucha lead that it was a foregone conclusion.
Your analogy is a crock.
Russett said after NC and before IN, that he was declaring Obama the nominee and that it was over and indisputable. That's what got him the title role here.
Lawrence O'Donnell said that Hillary's speechh that night was her concession speech but others just didn't know how to read between the lines.
Others wer carrying on about how Obama didn't campaign in WV when actually he had sent in double the ground forces Hillary had, spent well over twice as much blanketting the state with ads and opened twice as many campaign headquarters as Hillary. And that got him 27%, even though he had been annointed for over over a week.
Gloria and others seemed to enjoy discounting the vote because they wer all women, old, conservative,uneducated and poor. She didn't even read the CNN exit Polls afailable at CNN Election Central for every state. The exits said that :
58% had college and voted Hillary 61% - 30 14% had post graduate - voted Hillary 55 -40 34% were liberal and voted Hillary 67% - 29 13% said very liberal and 72% picked Hillary 45% made over 50,000 and voted Hillary 61% -30 47% male voted Hillary 60% and Obama 30%
Is Clinton Honest? yes 64% no 34%
Is Obama Honest? yes 43% no 55%
18% were Independents - Hillary 54 -32 Obama
Youth 17-29 years voted Hillary 59% - 35% Obama Age 30-44 voted Hillary 66 - 24 Obama Age 45-59 voted Hillary 67 - 24 Obama Age 60 + voted Hillary 71 - 24 Obama
Hillary has been making inroads into Obama's core groups for several primaries, except the Black vote. She was winning young people of all other races, for instance, and won all youth in California. She has been getting more male, college, and higher income groups. The overwhelming solidarity of the Black bloc skews the way the numbers in Obama's core groups in all of the other races.
Now there was some news in those figures. Didn't hear it from the "expert commentators" till John McLaughlin featured what he called "Obama's weakening support" as shown in the WV primary and other exit polling lately.
